Charlotte Kemp 
Introduction Backcasting is a strategic foresight method that starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify the steps, decisions, and actions required to reach that future from the present. Unlike forecasting, which projects forward from current trends, backcasting inverts the process, using the preferred future as the anchor point. It is … Read more
Introduction The Delphi Method is a structured, iterative process used to gather and refine expert opinions on complex or uncertain issues, particularly when reliable data is scarce. It relies on a panel of experts who respond anonymously to a series of questionnaires. After each round, responses are summarized and fed back to the group, allowing … Read more
Introduction Scenarios are a narrative tool that tells plausible, evidence-based stories about how the future might unfold. They are not predictions but structured narratives that explore multiple, divergent futures based on key drivers of change and uncertainties. They normally follow an environmental scanning exercise where these uncertainties have been uncovered. The purpose of scenarios is … Read more
Introduction The Futures Wheel is a visual method used to explore the first-, second-, and third-order consequences of a change, decision, or emerging issue. Structured like a mind map, the Futures Wheel helps individuals or groups trace possible impacts outward from a central idea in a logical, branching format. Unlike linear cause-and-effect diagrams, the Futures … Read more
Introduction The Map, Compass, Guide model is an original framework developed by myself to help individuals and organisations navigate uncertainty with better clarity and confidence. It draws on the timeless metaphors of exploration. Although we may slip into the language of calling it a ‘journey’ the real metaphor is of an expedition into a new … Read more
Definition The Conscious Futurist Spiral is a mindset model that reflects how individuals grow and shift in their thinking about the future. Unlike staged models such as Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs, which suggest a lock-step progression, the Spiral reflects a more realistic, dynamic journey, one of movement, slippage, re-alignment, and return. It accepts that humans … Read more
Introduction The Futures Cone is a useful framework in futures thinking, used to illustrate the wide range of possible futures that extend outward from the present moment. It is a visual tool that helps people understand that the future is not a single destination, but a space of many potential outcomes. What it is The … Read more
Definition A foundation for scenario development and strategic insight. The Axes of Uncertainty model is a core foresight tool used to create scenarios and explore plausible futures by mapping two critical uncertainties on perpendicular axes. The resulting four-quadrant matrix allows us to construct divergent future worlds based on how those uncertainties might unfold. This tool … Read more
Introduction PESTLE is one of the most widely used frameworks in strategic foresight and environmental scanning. It offers a structured method to analyse the external forces shaping the operating environment by categorising them into the six domains. A structured lens for scanning the forces shaping the future https://youtu.be/Qpeg7X8wc_w?si=ygo_h89tqls-UFJW The PESTLE framework helps strategists make sense … Read more
Introduction Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) is an incredibly helpful model to dig into the deeper reasons or causes of whatever we are investigating. Essentially we are analysing the cause of the results we see at a certain layer of investigation. CLA was designed by Sohail Inayatulla, an academic futurist who apparently uses this model before … Read more