Charlotte Kemp

Introduction Environmental scanning is the systematic process of collecting, analyzing, and interpreting information about external trends, drivers, and emerging issues that could impact an organization, industry, or society. The goal is to detect early signals of change (technological, social, political, economic, environmental, or legal) that may influence strategic decisions. See the PESTLE Drivers of Change … Read more

Introduction Wild Card Analysis is a foresight technique used to explore low-probability but high-impact events that could dramatically alter the future. These events, sometimes called “Black Swans”, are not predicted by traditional trend analysis but have the potential to disrupt systems, markets, or societies in profound ways. The goal of the analysis is not to … Read more

Introduction An Issues Paper is a structured summary document that synthesizes insights from environmental or horizon scanning into a clear set of emerging issues, challenges, or opportunities that warrant further exploration. Example It serves as a sense-making tool, distilling vast, fragmented information into concise narratives that identify what matters most for decision-making. Each “issue” is … Read more

Introduction Counter-Trend Analysis is a foresight technique used to identify, understand, and leverage movements that run against dominant or mainstream trends. While trend analysis examines the prevailing direction of change, counter-trend analysis focuses on emerging oppositional forces, reactions, reversals, or subcultures that challenge the status quo. Counter-trends often emerge as corrective forces within complex systems: … Read more

Introduction SWOT stands for Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats. It is a strategic planning tool used to evaluate the internal and external factors that could affect an organization, project, or strategy. Internally, it examines strengths and weaknesses (within the organization’s control), and externally, it identifies opportunities and threats (arising from the external environment). What it … Read more

Introduction Weak Signal Analysis is a foresight technique used to detect early, often ambiguous indicators of emerging change before they become clear trends. A weak signal is a fragment of information, a small event, new behaviour, niche innovation, or shift in values. These small signals may indicate the first signs of significant transformation in society, … Read more

Introduction A trend is a pattern of change over time that shows a general direction of movement. It could be increasing, decreasing, or transforming and could relate to behaviors, values, technologies, or systems. In strategic foresight, a trend represents a cluster of signals or data points that, taken together, indicate a shift that is likely … Read more

Introduction Roadmapping is a strategic planning and foresight tool used to visually align long-term goals with the steps, technologies, and actions required to achieve them. It provides a structured timeline, or “roadmap”, linking present capabilities to future aspirations. Unlike a project plan, which focuses on fixed deliverables and timelines, a roadmap shows how multiple streams … Read more

Introduction Backcasting is a strategic foresight method that starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify the steps, decisions, and actions required to reach that future from the present. Unlike forecasting, which projects forward from current trends, backcasting inverts the process, using the preferred future as the anchor point.  It is … Read more

Introduction The Delphi Method is a structured, iterative process used to gather and refine expert opinions on complex or uncertain issues, particularly when reliable data is scarce. It relies on a panel of experts who respond anonymously to a series of questionnaires. After each round, responses are summarized and fed back to the group, allowing … Read more