Foresight Dictionary complexity

Definition Complexity refers to the state of being intricate, interconnected, or multifaceted. There are non-linear interactions and dynamic feedback loops. Complex systems cannot be easily simplified. It requires a systems thinking approach to understand and navigate. A complicated system however, is easier to reduce to a model or diagram. Example Poly Crisis Adam Tooze’s Poly … Read more

Black Swan

Foresight Dictionary Black Swan

Definition Nassim Nicholas Taleb popularised the term ‘Black Swan Event’ when referring to an unexpected, unforeseen event that has a huge impact. The metaphor of a black swan originated from the presumption that all swans were white, based on centuries of observation, until black swans were discovered in Australia, challenging the previously held assumption. Similarly, … Read more


Foresight Dictionary Anticipation

Definition Anticipation in the context of futures thinking or strategic foresight refers to the ability to foresee and prepare for future developments, challenges, or opportunities. It involves analysing trends, identifying potential scenarios, and taking proactive steps to adapt or capitalise on them. Example Disney’s Theme Park Expansion: Disney strategically anticipates future trends in entertainment and … Read more

Futurist Fire Drills

Futurist Fire Drills Scenarios

What does a Health and Safety Fire Drill teach us about futures thinking? A fire in a building is a worst case scenario. People’s lives are in danger and property, both physical and intellectual, is at risk of being destroyed. It can set a business back years to recover what was lost, if in fact … Read more