Issues Paper | Futures Alchemist

Introduction

An Issues Paper is a structured summary document that synthesizes insights from environmental or horizon scanning into a clear set of emerging issues, challenges, or opportunities that warrant further exploration.

Example

It serves as a sense-making tool, distilling vast, fragmented information into concise narratives that identify what matters most for decision-making. Each “issue” is described in terms of its drivers, uncertainties, potential impacts, and relevance to a specific organization, sector, or future horizon.

Essentially Issues Paper turns data into dialogue for strategic exploration.

What It Looks Like

An Issues Paper typically includes:

A brief introduction summarizing the context and purpose of the scan.  
A list or narrative description of key emerging issues (often 5–15).  
For each issue:  
- A concise statement of what the issue is.  
- The underlying drivers and signals of change.  
- Possible implications or scenarios. 
- Key questions it raises for the organisation.  
- Supporting references or evidence.

In practice, this might look like a 10–20 page briefing document or a set of one-page issue summaries used to brief executives, boards, or workshop participants before a scenario session.

Examples

A strong example is the UK Government’s Foresight Programme (Cabinet Office, 2000s).  Before each major foresight project, the team developed an Issues Paper summarizing the findings from horizon scanning on topics like obesity, flooding, or the future of manufacturing.

These Issues Papers were used to:

Define the scope of the project,  
Select the focal issues for deeper analysis, and  
Engage stakeholders in refining research questions.

For instance, the Foresight Obesity Project (2007) began with an Issues Paper outlining drivers such as urban design, food culture, and biological predisposition, which later informed policy recommendations adopted by the UK’s Department of Health.

How and When It Is Used

The Issues Paper is used after scanning but before scenario development or strategic planning.

It is typically developed at the midpoint of a foresight project, when raw data needs to be synthesized into coherent themes.   It is also used to brief decision-makers, providing an accessible entry point into complex or uncertain topics.  

It can also be used as a scoping tool, defining which trends or issues warrant deeper exploration in later phases or to foster dialogue, serving as a discussion document for internal workshops, stakeholder interviews, or scenario-building sessions.  

In foresight workflows, it corresponds to the “Sensemaking” or “Interpretation” phase.

It can also be positioned as:

Participatory Issues Papers: Some foresight practitioners co-create the paper with stakeholders through workshops or interviews, combining expert and lay perspectives on what constitutes a “critical issue.”  
Living Documents: In digital foresight platforms, the Issues Paper is updated dynamically as new signals appear, keeping it continuously relevant.  
Sectoral Use: Universities, defense agencies, and NGOs have used Issues Papers to set national research agendas or to stimulate ethical reflection on technologies like AI or biotechnology.  
Media & Narrative Versions: Some teams reimagine the Issues Paper not as a dry report but as a storytelling artifact, combining data, visuals, and speculative vignettes to make complex futures more tangible.

Origin

The Issues Paper evolved from strategic planning and policy analysis practices in the 1970s and 1980s. It was formalised as a tool in foresight and futures programs during the 1990s, especially in government and corporate foresight units.

Notably:

The Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) used the Issues Paper extensively in its early foresight processes in the 1990s and 2000s.  
The tool was also popularised by Peter Bishop and Andy Hines in their Framework Foresight model at the University of Houston, where it serves as the bridge between Scanning and Scenarios.  
It draws intellectual roots from policy development tools like “Green Papers” and “White Papers,” but reimagined for exploring uncertainty and emerging change, not fixed policy positions.