Introduction
The Compass Model offers a navigational framework for engaging with the future and futures tools, in a structured yet flexible way. Just as a compass provides orientation in uncharted territory, this model helps us position ourselves in relation to the forces of change and the tools we need to move ahead.
All futures work and tools can be categorised into the four essential stages:
- Gather Intelligence
- Manage Change
- Describe the Future
- Test the Strategy
Example
1. Gather Intelligence
This stage involves observing, scanning, and collecting signals, trends, data, and narratives that reveal emerging change and contextual shifts. What do we need to know in order to get started?
Activities and tools include
• Horizon scanning
• Trend analysis (PESTLE)
• Weak signal detection
• Environmental scanning
• Interviews and expert insights
• Futures wheels
This first stage gives us an orientation before we tackle the vastness of the future and the astounding volume of data available to us.
Futures thinking starts with awareness. Without robust intelligence gathering, we risk being blindsided by change or trapped in legacy thinking.
2. Manage Change
This stage focuses on the dynamics of change, both internally and from external sources. It considers practical elements of change as well as human, psychological and cultural approaches to a changing world.
Activities and tools
• Change readiness assessments
• Unlearning and re-skilling programs
• Futures literacy development
• Organisational development strategies
• Stakeholder engagement and alignment
Learning how to manage, or explore change, gives us the ability to evolve in response to future conditions and integrate foresight into culture, leadership, and operations.
Gathering insight into external change is not enough. Futures work must be internalised to drive transformation. This stage ensures organisations do not just anticipate change, but actively navigate and shape it.
3. Describe the Future
This is the fun quadrant, where we shift from observation to imagination. It involves constructing possible, plausible, preferable, and even preposterous futures to expand thinking and challenge assumptions.
Activities and tools
• Scenario planning
• Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)
• Visioning and backcasting
• Design futures and speculative storytelling
• Scenario matrix (2×2) models
As we explore alternative futures we stretch our strategic thinking, uncover blind spots, and illuminate new paths forward.
People make decisions based on their assumptions about what the future holds. By describing multiple futures, we loosen the grip of default narratives and open space for innovation, resilience, and hope.
4. Test the Strategy
This final stage connects foresight to strategy by evaluating current plans, decisions, or policies against future possibilities. It’s where risk, resilience, and robustness are assessed.
Activities and tool
• Wind tunneling
• Backcasting
• Stress-testing scenarios
• Strategic audits and SWOT futures
• Future impact mapping
This quadrant helps us ensure that our strategies are fit for the future and not just reactive or efficient today. They need to be adaptive, anticipatory, and values-aligned for tomorrow.
Strategy without foresight is often obsolete on arrival. Testing strategy against multiple futures reduces fragility, reveals leverage points, and supports long-term decision-making.
Why the Compass Model Is Helpful
Holistic Guidance
It helps leaders and teams orient themselves within the full lifecycle of futures work, seeing both where to go as well as how to get there.
Modular and Adaptable
Each quadrant can be explored independently or integrated as part of a larger process. This flexibility suits diverse contexts, from policy to innovation to community development.
Balance of Inner and Outer Work
By including both external scanning and internal change management, the model bridges foresight and transformation.
Strategic Application
It grounds imagination in strategy, ensuring that futures work leads to practical, testable actions and not just theoretical insight.
By following this compass, anyone can navigate uncertainty with confidence, curiosity, and clarity—choosing not only a direction but a destination aligned with their preferred futures.
Origin of this model
Charlotte Kemp, based off the categories of ‘The Futures Toolkit’, a publication of the Government Office for Science, UK Government
Other posts in this series
