Introduction
A strategic foresight tool for navigating transformation over time
The Three Horizons Model is a framework that helps you to think about change across different timeframes. It provides a structure for understanding how current systems evolve, how emergent ideas gain traction, and how to manage the transition between the present and the future.
Originally introduced by Bill Sharpe, based on work with the International Futures Forum, the model maps the life cycles of ideas, institutions, and innovations.
It is a tool for managing change, fostering innovation, and building bridges between today’s realities and tomorrow’s possibilities.
What It Looks Like
The model describes three overlapping “horizons” of time and change:
Horizon 1 – The Present System
This horizon represents the current way things are done. It includes current structures, technologies, mindsets, and business models. Horizon 1 is working now, or has worked in the past, but it may be limited by legacy thinking and may be declining in relevance over time.
Key question: What parts of our current system are still working well — and what is becoming outdated?
Horizon 2 – The Transition Zone
This is the space of innovation, tension, and competition between the old and the new. It includes experiments, pilot projects, startups, and disruptive trends that are trying to gain traction. Horizon 2 can be chaotic, uncertain and messy. It is very tempting in this stage, to want to return to what used to work, even while you see the evidence that old approaches are becoming redundant.
Key question: What might the cost be of returning to the past and no longer being relevant, or the profit of doubling down the effort to move into a better future?
Horizon 3 – The Emerging Future
This horizon represents transformational visions and ideas about what the future could be. Often considered too radical or utopian at first, these ideas may eventually become the new mainstream. Horizon 3 is aspirational, long-term, and grounded in purpose and values.
Key question: What kind of future do we want to create?
Why it works
- Maintain current performance (H1)
- Foster innovative change (H2)
- Work toward long-term transformation (H3)
How to use it
This may be a little simplified but here is an example of how the Three Horizons can be used in business with iPhones as an example.
While people were lining up outside the Apple Store to buy their latest iPhone 8, the Marketing Department at Apple was busy designing the campaign to launch iPhone 9. And at the same time the R&D department were debating how many cameras to put on the iPhone X.
While people were experiencing the pleasure of Horizon 1 purchases the company was focusing on Horizon 2 campaigns and Horizon 3 research and development – all simultaneously. For people outside of the business environment they would see this play out over a number of months or years while internally they are simultaneous experiences.
This thinking can be applied to any type of business or career. You are experiencing something now in Horizon 1 while preparing for Horizon 2 and spending a little time each week fantasising about Horizon 3. You cannot only prepare for Horizon 3 when it arrives. If you do, then you are too late.
In Summary
The Three Horizons Model is a time-based planning tool that helps you make a mindset shift. We can rely on our current systems knowing that they will be replaced and preparing mentally and practically for that shift.
By helping us to manage both long-term thinking and short-term action, the model offers a way to lead with clarity without being disoriented by complexity.
Origin of the model
Bill Sharpe, based on work with the International Futures Forum, 2006
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