Introduction
The Three Levels of Futures Thinking, from the bottom up, are Mindset, Toolset, and Skillset.
To engage effectively in futures thinking, we need to operate across three connected levels: mindset, tool set, and skill set. Each level builds on the previous levels so that we have a deep understanding as well as the ability to respond in practical ways.
1. Futures Mindset
The futures mindset is your underlying attitude and worldview – the mental framework you use when you’re thinking about the future. It’s the foundation that shapes how you approach change, what you see as possible, and how you handle uncertainty.
All the tools and methods for futures thinking won’t help much if our basic mindset isn’t ready.
Components of a healthy futures mindset
• Openness to uncertainty and ambiguity
• Long-term thinking beyond immediate goals
• Comfort with complexity and non-linearity
• A belief in agency – that the future is not fixed, but shaped by choices
• Ethical awareness, knowing we have a responsibility for future generations and wider systems
Why it matters
Without a futures-oriented mindset, even the best tools and methods may be used in limited, reactive ways. A strong mindset provides the philosophical grounding to move from problem-solving to opportunity-creating, from prediction to exploration, and from fear to imagination.
2. Futures Toolset
The futures toolset encompasses the models and tools used to explore, anticipate, and influence possible futures. These include familiar business tools as well as strategic foresight tools. [See the 4 Part Compass for a categorisation of these tools.]
Examples of tools
• Horizon scanning and trend mapping
• Scenario planning
• Causal layered analysis (CLA)
• STEEP/PESTLE analysis
• Futures wheels
• Backcasting and forecasting
• Delphi method
Why it matters
Futures thinking becomes practical and scalable when supported by the right tools. These tools help people make the intangible more tangible, facilitate group dialogue, and create rigor in how futures insights are generated and applied.
3. Futures Skillset
The futures skillset includes the competencies and capabilities needed to apply futures tools effectively and ethically, while navigating real-world systems and decision-making processes.
Core skills include
• Strategic imagination and creative thinking
• Pattern recognition and sensemaking
• Systems thinking and integrative reasoning
• Facilitation and storytelling
• Translating foresight into strategy and action
• Communicating uncertainty with clarity and credibility
Why it matters
Skills bridge the gap between theory and practice. A person might have access to futures tools and hold an open mindset, but without the necessary skills, like how to guide a futures conversation or translate signals into strategy, the impact is diminished.
Why This Model Is Helpful
It provides a developmental pathway
It shows that futures thinking isn’t just about learning tools—it requires a shift in thinking and the cultivation of new capabilities.
Encourages balance
Many organizations jump straight to tools without attending to mindset or skills. This model reminds us to integrate all three levels for truly transformational futures work.
Supports leadership and learning
It offers a diagnostic for leaders, coaches, and educators to identify where individuals or teams may be strong or need development.
Adapts to context
Different roles (e.g., strategist, educator, policymaker, creative) may emphasize one level over another. The model is flexible enough to support diverse applications while offering a shared framework for growth.
Framing futures thinking as a layered and integrated practice invites learners and leaders to become futurists in the deepest sense—equipped not just with tools, but with the mindset and skills to wield them with purpose.
Origin of model
Charlotte Kemp, Futures Alchemist, 2023
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